Here is everything you need to know about the information that WORMS offers and how to use it:
What is WORMS?
WORMS is an algorithm that is designed to predict the most likely scores in each game offering us a chance to assess the lines through the eyes of this most likely outcome.
The name stands for Wins On Real Measure of Success. In other words, using the algorithm, we determine who will win and by how many using statistics that are closely associated with success. Instead of the eye test casual gamblers may employ or the money-influenced Vegas lines, WORMS doesn’t care about anything other than what a team can do on the field.
Instead of applying our own biases to lines in Vegas that are already biased by perceived action, we get pure mathematical predictions to leverage.
What is the best way to use WORMS?
Because WORMS is predicting the most likely score, it is best to utilize it when it is its most confident.
Another way to say this is that WORMS will be most right when it predicts something the furthest away from the spread or the moneyline. Because we are looking at the most likely scenario, then it follow that the next most likely results are around that one and so on and so forth (like a bell curve distribution). So WORMS considers itself pretty accurate if it is only off a couple of points from a final score, which means we want to use it when it has that safety built in.
When looking at the WORMS data, we will organize it by Delta Spread. This is the difference between the WORMS spread and the Vegas spread. The bigger the Delta Spread, the more likely it is that WORMS will beat Vegas.
In summary, bet the spread when WORMS is furthest away from Vegas.
For moneylines, you want to determine your level of risk and use WORMS to target spots that give you an advantage. This may look like betting on a team that is an underdog by 2 in Vegas but which WORMS favors by 2, or it might look like betting on a 6-point Vegas favorite that WORMS has as an 11-point favorite. That depends on your risk profile.
What goes into WORMS?
We can’t tell you all of the information that goes into WORMS, because then you wouldn’t need us Owls to get them for you.
What we can do, though, is to explain what goes into WORMS.
Essentially, we use the most predictive and sticky offensive and defensive stats to go beyond points per game and instead determine the success that teams will likely have in a game.
In other words, we are not trying to tell you how many points a team will score or give up, we are trying to tell you how successful each team will be in the given situation. This is represented in a numerical score (like a football score) but that is less about trying to nail one side versus another and more represent the distance between two teams.
Should I just use WORMS to make bets?
WORMS cannot always account for injuries, weather, or many of the human elements that make football gambling so unpredictable.
What it can do is to provide a baseline from which to start your assessment.
In other words, WORMS will tell you what the line should be based on the computations of the data. You can take that and try to reverse engineer whether there are other factors in the game or whether Vegas has a line on something that could be influencing the line.
In general, the more confident WORMS is, the less likely that an outside factor can derail the pick. With the being said, narratives, circumstance, individual performances, and a myriad of other factors can always influence an outcome.
Who invented WORMS?
WORMS was developed by me, Stuart Easton, and a silent partner who wishes to remain anonymous under the name the Night Owl.
My background is mainly in football coverage, but the Night Owl has spent years in data analysis on the corporate level, working with several Fortune 500 companies. Together we bring to the table to content knowledge and the systems knowledge to produce a meaningful and relevant statistical analysis.
If you wish to use WORMS on your site or in your media, please send a request to the Owl Eats Football e-mail (top right corner of the page) to submit a request.