Week 1 Football Gambling Thoughts


Right off the bat, I'll be frank, gambling is hard.


The people who you gamble against (sports books) are only in business because they are so good at giving themselves an advantage.


With that said, we live in an age where there is more information available than ever. If we process that information in the right way, then we can gain a little bit of that edge back.


So, without further ado, here are three places that my processing of information says we have the most advantage over the books:


1) DEN -1 @ OAK


Honestly, you probably aren't getting -1 on this game anymore, after Antonio Brown decided he doesn't like money and football more than he likes attention.


In spite of that, I got in on this line at -1 and I may go back for more. Denver is a savage defense with a veteran quarterback and a run game that can protect both. They are designed to win football games and have an absolutely game changer coaching them.


On the flip side, if AB is out, who is Oakland's best player?


I'll wait...


Ok, well let me know if you get one. Until then, I'll take a loaded D and capable O over a team with no proven playmakers anywhere.


This game has a lot of variables and offers some volatility, but the facts remain. Denver is good and Oakland is (as I tweeted earlier) a dumpster fire.


2) MIA - BAL over 37.5


Again, volatility is abound in this game, but that is often the friend of a gambler. Vegas wants predictability that they can squeeze money out of, we want opportunity to capitalize on - something that only comes in unpredictable circumstances.


In this case, Miami will decidedly be unable to stop Baltimore. I do not believe it is unreasonable to say that Baltimore has a 30 point game in their own range of outcomes.


Even if they underperform, however, we're still looking at a Miami team loaded with speed (Drake, Wilson, Grant) and freakish athleticism (Parker, Williams) and the gunniest gun slinger of all time (Fitzmagic). They will be behind, they will be looking to strike big plays, they will be successful occasionally.


Nothing is ever a lock, but I feel like this game has as much chance of shooting out as it does of being a grind it out snooze fest, and that is an advantage over the books.


3) IND +6.5 @ LAC


I want this line to be 7 so badly. If it was 7 I would be explaining to my fiance why we have an appointment to look at Lambo's on Monday.


But even at 6.5, this line gives us opportunity. Jacoby Brissett is a huge down grade from Andrew Luck, but not as much as this line may suggest. He has started before, he has been first team all training camp, and Frank Reich is a scheme master. Add in a dominant O-line, solid backs and receivers, and a defense that was built for a championship run and this is a team that should win a lot of games this year.


Conversely, the little brother of LA (as they're known around my house) may have actually downgraded more than Indy. They lost their best defensive player (hot take but not really) in Derwin James, they lost their left tackle Russell Okung, Melvin Gordon may be replaceable but he is still better than their other options, and they play in a stadium that may be more Colts fans.


Like I said, if the line were 7 I'd be planning my retirement from this site (lord knows I've earned it), but 6.5 is enough to get me to see the opportunity.




When an owl eats, it eats everything but only uses what is good for it. I ate all of this week's games, and here is what is good for me. Hopefully it helped you figure out what is good for you.

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