Updated: Sep 8, 2019
So it's Week 1 and you're chomping at the bit to win the Milli-Maker like Bill Belichick watching an undrafted wide receiver with good footwork. Well, no need to worry, Owl Eats Football has you covered!
Here are week one plays and predictions for you to gobble up, digest, and turn into points, dollars, and wins:
DFS GPP (Guaranteed Prize Poll aka Big Tournaments) Intro
The purpose of this segment is to give you plays that you might not hear elsewhere, or that may not jump off the page at first glance. Part analytical, part predictive, part historical, these projections are reflective of our philosophy here at Owl Eats Football: consider everything and trust yourself to make something out of it all.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - MIA
For the first player ever listed on this sight, I know I am out on a limb, but out on a limb is where they put all the money for GPPs.
We know you have to do something different to win these things, but this is also a player who has history and potential on his side.
To begin with, remember that last week 1 Fitzpatrick won someone $1,000,000 by torching a Saints D that was predicted to be stout and wound up being so. In the NFL, less padded practices and fewer training camp sessions mean defenses are less prepared, something Fitzpatrick has taken advantage of already.
In this particular game, he will be slinging the ball constantly, hunting for big plays as Baltimore looks to control the clock and inevitably puts up points. Although Miami has a cratered roster, they still have dynamic pass catchers that are all big play. Devante Parker is a freak, Albert Wilson won someone else $1,000,000 last year, Jakeem Grant is like the second fastest player in the league (behind Wilson), and Preston Williams is a bigger freak than Parker. Add in Kenyan Drake as a pass catcher and Fitzpatrick will be launching the ball all day to players who can house any reception.
If he pops off, we win.
Justice Hill - BAL
What? Another BAL-MIA player? You've gone of the rails.
Well, guess what? Off the rails is there they keep the money.
If we are building a game script where Baltimore rolls and Fitzmagic is trying to lead the fins back to the mountain top, then the Ravens have to score. And who better to score than the best running back (yeah, I said it) on a team that is going to run more than any other.
Hill is one of three running backs on the Ravens and he is competing with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram. No offense to either, one a career back-up the other a 30 year old who has never played outside of New Orleans, but they are better served to grind down defenses north to south. Hill is someone who can flash speed, break tackles, and provide us those big plays we crave so much.
Is it a risk? Yes, but I'm not here to tell you to play Christian McCaffery. If Hill optimizes 7-12 touches, he could easily score twice, haul in a handful of receptions, and pile up chunk plays.
John Brown - BUF
Ok, perhaps we're coming back to earth a little bit here.
We all know what Smokey is capable of, but perhaps you haven't quite realized what has happened here.
Per Adam Levitan's tweet, John Brown and Josh Allen are an aDOT (Average Depth of Target) dream team. In other words, Josh Allen (also a great play) throws the deepest balls and John Brown is among the best in the league at catching deep balls.
As you may notice in my gambling section, this Bills team is better than they're getting credit for, and the Jets are not as good as the hype. Buffalo has built an offense designed to take shots down field in between a ground and pound/stellar D combo.
Cole Beasley may lead the team in targets, but if Brown gets five chances to go deep, history tells us that a couple of those are likely to connect and win us some money.
Evan Engram - NYG
Alright, two feet back on the ground here. But not without some sneakiness to make raise our risk and reward.
A helpful exercise as part of the Owl Hive is to consider all the information you see, process it, and then turn to the information you don't see. In this case, that tells us that everyone is touting Kelce and Kittle as studs in matchups where their numbers will be called, or they're touting the low priced high upside guys like Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper.
For me, my eyes fall right in between to the name of a man who is A) an athletic freak B) the only healthy, capable receiver on a team that will be behind, and C) has a quarterback who has not shown the ability to throw over ten yards in the past ten years (give or take).
If I am going to some sketchy places for big plays elsewhere, then I am coming to Evan Engram for my guaranteed volume at a low ownership.
And THAT folks, is how an Owl Eats a DFS Lineup Build.